How the predictions work

Rating every team

The model rates each team's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, which measures the quality of chances a team creates and concedes. Recent matches count for more than older ones.

From ratings to probabilities

For each match, the ratings give an expected number of goals for each side. From those, the model works out the probability of every possible score, and every market follows from that: who wins, total goals, both teams to score and the most likely scorelines.

Reading a prediction

The coloured strip on each match shows the chance of going over 2.5 goals against staying under. The tip is whichever is more likely, and every match page also shows the 1.5 and 3.5 lines.

A probability is not a promise. A 70% call still loses about three times in ten, which is why we publish every graded pick on the results page.

Model price and bookmaker odds

The model price is simply the odds that the model's probability implies. We show it beside the bookmaker's odds as a reference. It isn't a claim that a bet is good value.